Executive Summary
Third Party Impacts

The purpose of this Draft Report is to provide estimates of the potential third party impacts associated with the Habitat Component of the First Increment of the proposed Platte River Recovery Implementation Program (herein referred to as "Program"). The goal of the Program is to protect habitat for targeted species in and along the Platte River from Lexington to Chapman, Nebraska while minimizing the expected adverse third party impacts to landowners and residents. The Program will focus on improving and maintaining migration habitat for whooping cranes and reproductive habitat for least terns and piping plovers. It will strive to achieve the habitat goal through acquisition, restoration and management of land and/or land interests along an 89-mile stretch of the Platte River in central Nebraska.

The milestones and exact structure of the Habitat Component have yet to be defined by the Governance Committee (GC) and the Land Committee (LC) and this study is designed to provide input which will minimize or avoid potential negative impacts. Therefore, the results presented in this report provide an estimate of the range of potential impacts and not the specific impacts that would occur when the proposed Program is implemented.

The Scope of Work developed for this study was the result of five scoping meetings facilitated by Hazen and Sawyer and attended by members of the Land Committee, the Third Party Impact Subcommittee, the Governance Committee and the Executive Director of the Platte River Implementation Program. This Draft Report follows the guidelines developed in the Phase II Statement of Work dated June 9, 1999.

Third Party Impacts. The impact variables that describe the perceived and hypothesized third party impacts are listed below.

Changes in land use from agriculture to habitat areas

Changes in recreation activity

Changes in Habitat Restoration and Management Activities

Changes in Fiscal Conditions

Nuisance Factors

Changes in Water Quality and Quantity

Changes in Education and Research Opportunities

Study Area. The study area is located in central Nebraska within an area commonly known as the Big Bend Region and includes the counties of Adams, Buffalo, Dawson, Gosper, Hall, Hamilton, Kearney, Merrick, and Phelps. The study area includes 5,633 square miles or 3.6 million acres with total estimated population of 181,237 in 1997. The study area is primarily rural in nature with several urban areas including Grand Island, Kearney, Hastings, and Lexington. The study area's population has increased by about 6 percent over the seven-year period from 1990-1997.

Agriculture is a very important sector for many counties within the study area. For instance, in Hamilton, Kearney, Merrick and Phelps Counties, 20 percent of total county personal income in 1996 was derived from farm operations. Agricultural production includes corn, soybeans, winter wheat, sorghum, hay, beef cattle, milk cows, hogs, pigs, sheep and lambs. Corn is the largest crop in terms of production with 1.8 million acres yielding 257 million bushels. Soybeans were the second largest crop with 219,100 acres yielding 10.4 million bushels. In 1996, about 80 percent of the acreage in crop production was irrigated in the nine county study area. The area is home to 804,000 head of beef cattle; 327,000 head of hogs and pigs; 24,000 head of sheep and lambs; and 3,200 head of milk cows.

The major sources of personal income in the nine-county study area are (1) Dividends, interest and rent; (2) Transfer payments; (3) Manufacturing; (4) Services; and (5) Government and Government Enterprises. These sources provided 75 percent of total personal income in the study area. Income from farm earnings (excluding "dividends, interest and rent" which is reported separately) comprised 7.3 percent of total personal income in the study area. This is a significant contribution especially considering that this category includes on-farm income only and not income received by supporting industries such as agricultural services, manufacturing, construction, and transportation.

Study Period. The Third Party Impact Study includes an evaluation of impacts from protecting and managing 10,000 acres over a twenty-year study period from 2001 to 2020. A twenty-year study period was chosen to capture potential lagged affects of acquiring and/or protecting 10,000 acres during the first five years of program implementation. It is assumed that the Program will start in 2001 with the management of the Cottonwood Ranch property that was acquired by the Nebraska Public Power District in 1992 for wildlife habitat. The Program will then restore, protect and manage an additional 7,350 acres for endangered species as described for each of the habitat protection scenarios. All 10,000 acres will be protected and managed by 2006.

Baseline Condition. The Baseline Condition represents current and expected future land uses on the potential 10,000 acres in the study area without the Program over the study period. The potential 10,000 acres are called the Habitat Protection Area. These land uses include agriculture, recreation, gravel mining and non-ESA-related habitat protection efforts by private and public entities that are likely to occur without the Program. Current conditions are represented as the average land uses and productivity over a certain representative period.

Factors that may affect future land use include changes in farm policies and the demand for second homes and recreation sites along the Platte River. These factors and others were considered when defining the baseline condition. Under the baseline condition, land uses within the Habitat Protection Area will mirror current uses over the study period. This conclusion is based on information on land use trends in the nine-county study area. The central Platte region has traditionally been a relatively stable area with agriculture the dominant land use. There are no indications at this time that this trend will be altered in any significant way. Therefore, it is assumed that current land use conditions will continue over the study period.

Habitat Protection Scenarios. Three habitat protection scenarios were defined for the purpose of evaluating third party impacts as follows. This draft report includes the third party impacts of Scenarios 1 and 2. The impacts associated with Scenario 3 will be evaluated once the potential lands and the existing land uses have been further defined. The three scenarios are summarized as follows.

Scenario 1 - This scenario corresponds to the "Block/Segment Plan" as described by the Platte River Management Joint Study's Biological Workgroup. According to this plan, habitat complexes would be developed within the ten central Platte River bridge-to-bridge segments. The Cooperative Agreement indicates that the Program will focus on obtaining and protecting wet meadow and channel habitat within blocks of land, which are suitable for development into habitat complexes. For purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that the Program will focus on the following habitat types.

main channel habitat - a mixture of wetted channel, sandbars and islands

riverine buffer – combination of cover types (e.g. main channel habitat, riparian forest and grasslands)

wet meadows - seasonally wet grasslands

wet meadow buffers – grasslands and/or croplands.

 

For the purpose of this analysis, the Program will protect and manage 10,000 acres according to the following schedule that was adapted from the FWS's, Preliminary Draft Milestones for First Increment of Proposed Platte River Recovery Implementation Program, October, 1998.

 

Cottonwood Ranch Property would be developed and enhanced for target species starting in 2001 (2,775 acres).

 

Habitat Block A (3,777 acres) would be developed and enhanced for target species starting in 2004.

 

Habitat Block B (3,741 acres) would be developed and enhanced for target species starting in 2006.

 

Scenario 2 – This scenario describes a plan to strategically select habitat areas near or adjacent to existing protected habitat areas. This plan would be used to meet the biological needs of the target species and improve existing management activities on already protected habitat. The distribution of habitat lands under this scenario was based on the location of existing protected areas and identified using the 1982 GIS land coverage database provided by FWS. The estimated schedule for protecting and managing these areas is as follows.

Cottonwood Ranch Property would be developed and enhanced for wildlife use starting in 2001 (2,775 acres).

Habitat Segment A would be protected and managed near existing protected areas starting in 2004 (2,585 acres).

Habitat Segment B would be protected and managed near existing protected areas starting in 2006 (2,455 acres).

Habitat Segment C would be protected and managed near existing protected areas starting in 2006 (2,513 acres).

The protection and management of habitat under this scenario, other than the Cottonwood Ranch property, would be based on the perceived needs of the existing protected areas. For instance, it may be determined that existing protected areas need additional acreage managed as buffers to enhance the protection and management of certain habitat areas. Alternatively, existing protected areas may need additional habitat acreage to meet the biological needs of the target species. It is anticipated that the management of habitat under this scenario would be similar to the management under Scenario 1.

Scenario 3 - This scenario describes a situation where the proposed program would acquire and/or protect habitat lands scattered throughout the Habitat Protection Area. The location of habitat lands would be driven by the cooperation of voluntary participants. The FWS will further define the habitat parcels for this scenario at which time the third party impacts will be evaluated. It is anticipated that this analysis will be included in the Final Report. The habitat lands under Scenario 3 will be protected and managed according to the schedule proposed for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

Restoration and Management of Habitat Lands. The third party impact analysis considered how habitat lands would be managed and enhanced under the Program. Management plans have not been developed at this time but it is presumed that an adaptive management approach will be implemented by the management entity. The restoration and management methods used for the purposes of this study were based information from the FWS and the preliminary results of the study being completed by Western Ecosystems Technology, Inc. titled Draft – Habitat Management Methods for Least Terns, Piping Plovers, and Whooping Cranes.

Using this information, the acceptable and unacceptable activities and management methods within each of the habitat areas were identified. For instance, the Habitat Committee has described some acceptable and unacceptable management practices for wet meadow and roosting/nesting habitat as follows.

Acceptable management on existing wet meadows

Regulated grazing and haying
Row crops acceptable near or contiguous to parcel
Timber harvesting and clearing
Hunting.

Acceptable management on roosting/nesting habitat

Sand and gravel may be acceptable
Hunting and trapping
Harvesting mushrooms and timber
Fishing.

Unacceptable management practices on both types of habitat

Multi-unit residential development
Commercial and industrial development
Animal confinement activities
Construction of permanent structures on specified nesting areas.

Economic Impacts in the Study Area. Economic impacts of the proposed Program occur as employment and income of households and businesses are affected by the change in land use on 10,000 acres in the central Platte Region. Economic models were developed and used to predict the impacts of potential land use changes on the economy of the study area. A spreadsheet model was developed to evaluate the following potential economic impacts associated with the proposed Program.

Agricultural Production - Changes in total sales, employment and income (direct, indirect and induced) to the study area economy from changing current and future agricultural land uses to protected wildlife habitat

Habitat Restoration and Management - Changes in sales, employment and income (direct, indirect and induced) to the study area economy from restoring and managing habitat complexes

Recreation - Changes in total sales, employment and income (direct, indirect and induced) to the study area economy from a potential increase in recreational activities on habitat lands (e.g. hunting, bird watching)

Employment includes the number of full-time and part-time wage and salary jobs in the study area. Income includes wages and salaries, proprietor's income, profit and rent earned in the study area.

The economic impact of the proposed Program can be described in terms of changes in the direct, indirect and induced sales, income, and employment generated in the region due to the change in land use. The direct, indirect and induced economic impacts are captured by the regional economic model and for this study are described as follows.

Direct impacts/sectors - Changes in production by those sectors directly affected by a change in land use can cause changes in sales of these sectors and changes in employment and income to proprietors, property owners, and employees of the sector(s).

Indirect impacts/sectors - Changes in sales, income and employment can occur in other sectors in the study area because these sectors provide goods and services to the direct sector(s).

Induced impacts/sectors - Changes in sales, income and employment can occur in those sectors that provide goods and services to the indirect sector(s) and to the employees of the direct and indirect sectors.

The overall economic impacts of the Program under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 relative to the baseline condition are presented in Tables ES-1 to ES-4. Overall the Program is expected to increase the present value of total direct, indirect and induced sales in the study area by $4.1 million under Scenario 1 and $7.9 million under Scenario 2 relative to the baseline condition. The reduced agricultural sales expected under both scenarios will be offset by the increase in sales from habitat restoration and management and by increased recreation in the study area.

Likewise, the Program is expected to increase the present value of total direct, indirect and induced income in the study area by $4.1 million under Scenario 1 and by $5.7 million under Scenario 2.

 

The impact of the Program on employment in the study area varies by year. Under Scenario 1, the number of net jobs in the study area due to the Program is expected to reach a high of 51 jobs in 2004 and then taper down to a net increase of 1 job from 2009 to 2015. By 2016, there will be no change in jobs from the Program relative to the baseline condition. Under Scenario 2, employment gains reach a high of 81 jobs in 2006 and then taper off to a net gain of 1 job after 2010.

 

Fiscal Impacts. In addition to generating economic activity, private land use is important to the tax base of local government subdivisions. This is especially true in Nebraska because a significant percentage of local tax revenues are generated through property taxes. At this time the Governance Committee has agreed to pay all property taxes on acquired habitat lands as long as the Program is in place as stated in the following policy statement released on February 9,1999.

Given this policy statement by the Governance Committee, it is not expected that the Program would negatively impact the property tax revenues to local government subdivisions. However, if the Program changed this policy and did not pay taxes on large blocks of program lands that are acquired through fee simple title, there is a potential for negative tax revenue impacts in local areas. This is a significant concern for small, rural school districts that rely heavily on property taxes for funding.

Changes in land use caused by the Program can also potentially impact sales and excise taxes collected by government subdivisions in the central Platte Region. Indirect business taxes include sales and excises taxes that consumers pay to businesses as they purchase goods and services. The change in indirect business taxes was estimated by applying economic multipliers to the change in direct sales resulting from a change in land use. The change in indirect business taxes under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 are summarized in Table ES-5.

The results of this analysis indicate that indirect business taxes would fall with a reduction in agricultural sales from program lands. However, tax receipts are estimated to increase due to sales increases caused by habitat restoration and management activities and increased recreational expenditures. The overall impact of protecting and managing habitat lands on indirect business tax receipts is estimated to be positive under both scenarios. Under Scenario 1, the present value of increased tax receipts is estimated to be $311,000 over the study period. The present value of increased tax receipts under Scenario 2 is estimated to be $635,000 over the study period.

Impacts to Neighboring Properties. To identify potential impacts of the Program to neighboring property owners, owners of local areas providing habitat protection, their neighbors, and Weed Control District superintendents were interviewed. To date, interviews have been completed for five habitat owners; five adjacent property owners; and seven Weed District superintendents.

The owners of the habitat-protected properties said that impacts to neighboring properties are negligible. All of the five adjacent landowners said that the habitat-protected land adjacent to their property has not caused the following problems.

Four of the five respondents said that there have been no weed infestations caused by management of the habitat-protected property. One of the respondents said that the tree clearing and ground cultivation on the habitat-protected property has increased the musk thistle population on his property. He has not taken any action to control this infestation but says that he will if the problem gets any worse. Based on information provided by the Weed Control District Superintendents, the cost to treat weed-infested areas during the three to five year control period will vary with the intensity of the infestation. For a severe infestation, an order of magnitude cost would be about $500 per acre during the treatment period.

One of the respondents, a farmer, said that the widening of the river for habitat management has caused flooding on some of his property. As a result, he has had to move his fences.

One respondent indicated that, over the years, there has been an increase in the number of birdwatchers due to the increased crane population. Another farmer indicated that he plans to install fences and no-trespassing signs due to the greater number of bird watchers in recent years. This farmer remarked that "the installation cost of $1,500 for fences, gates and signs was a small price to pay to ensure additional wildlife variety right next door." Overall, neighboring property owners say that the bird watchers are tolerable. However, four of the neighbors interviewed stated that wild game poachers and joy riders are a problem and their numbers would increase proportionally with an increase in the number of birdwatchers.

The five neighbors interviewed identified the following positive impacts they received from the habitat-protected property.

Water Quality and Quantity. Under Scenario 1, about 1,400 acres of alfalfa, corn, row crops and pasture would be converted to wildlife habitat. Under Scenario 2, about 1,255 acres of these agricultural lands would be converted to habitat. Converting land from agricultural production to wildlife habitat has the potential to change the quality of water in the natural watercourse and the quantity of water consumed by the plant life. However, because the amount of acreage to be converted from agricultural production is not significant, positive water quality and quantity impacts are expected to be minor. No detrimental impacts are expected.

Educational and Research Opportunities. The extent and value of educational and research opportunities for habitat-protected areas depends on the management policies of the owners and the degree to which the land can be easily accessed. Some local habitat-protected properties offer access to educational groups, ranging from grade school to graduate school. Some owners encourage research with universities, scouting camps and hunting-mentoring programs. Some owners provide a variety of education programs and look for expansion opportunities; while other owners offer limited programs and seek limited expansion opportunities. Some owners have aggressively pursued visitors while others are passive. There are also concerns of accident liability, which could increase habitat management costs.

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